Huge Monday Night Week 11 Game – Patriots vs. Chiefs Pick by PrimeTimeBoys

The Chiefs play the following Sunday night at home vs the Steelers & the Pats have the Eagles in Philly. The Patriots know they gotta win to keep the division lead & now that they have beaten the Jets twice this year, they have the clear edge over Rex Ryan & his boys.

Sharks Week 11 College Football Picks

CLEMSON -16 = with 2 weeks to rest,heal and prepare for the deacs, i expect the tigers to bounce back big, WF had a strong start , but after they gave the game of their lives and upset the Noles, they began their way back to earth, losing to Vatech and barely came out with a 1pt win against Duke, then yet again having lost 2ice in a row, i dont see that changing much, its not that the deacs will just bend over and let clemson have it , but the tigers at home are a completely different animal , and have just to much speed and atletisism, and will be hungry to get back in business.

South Florida -4 at Syracuse

I see a lot of forum posters on covers now really jumping on syracuse.  This is one of those games that seems too good to be true.  A team on a losing streak on the road giving more than a touchdown.  Everyone is all over syracuse.

I am going with SOUTH FLORIDA (-4)

THIS IS WHAT WE ARE FADING:

“some analysis from POLTYRGASM on covers:

This one is puzzling. On the one hand, South Florida has lost four in a row, including close ones at Rutgers, Connecticut, and Cincy. On the other hand, they’re still putting up 400 yards/game and have a pretty threatening weapon in BJ Daniels.

On the one hand, Syracuse looks schizophrenic. They paste West Virginia one week, then lose two straight to Connecticut & Louisville, both of which are pretty terrible teams.

So the question is: Which South Florida team will show up on Friday night? And which Syracuse team?

I love looking at the 3-4 most recent games to determine which “direction” teams are heading. Syracuse seems to be holding steady. They’re like the baby bear’s porridge: not too hot, not too cold.

South Florida, meanwhile, is tanking. Four losses in a row. And with the exception of the drumming that Pitt gave them back in early October, their losses have all been three-pointers. They’re like a guy who can’t close with a girl: they get right up to the edge but then somehow, some way, find a way to screw it up.

I think South Florida is the more talented team, but that’s only a part of the equation. Their confidence is low after starting the season so strong and then taking a nose dive. Syracuse becomes bowl eligible if they win on Friday, and that’s going to provide some extra motivation.

When Syracuse rolled into Louisville and laid a big fat egg, I swore that I wouldn’t bet on them again this season. But at home, with 4 points on their side, and with a limping South Florida team that doesn’t seem to know how to “get the job done” … I’m taking Syracuse +4 on Friday.

BOL to everyone.

I am going with SOUTH FLORIDA (-4)

Chicago Bears (+8) @ Philadelphia Eagles Monday Nov. 7

This week’s pick is the Chicago Bears (+8).

 

With 2 hours till kickoff, the data feeds:

 

Betting public is 54% BEARS (+8)

Betting public is 46% EAGLES (-8)

Wagers at the major bookmakers are relatively balanced.

Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars Monday Oct 24 830pm EST

With 1 hour till kickoff, data feeds:

Betting public is 81% RAVENS

Betting public is 19% JAGUARS

The line opened at Ravens(-8.5) and quickly moved to (-10).  This morning the line has been flashing between (-9.5) and (-10) at various sites.

Through week 6, NFL winning plays have largely been FAVORITES and the OVER.

 

**Line Movement Alert** Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs. New York Jets Monday, Oct 17

**Line Movement Alert**

 

With 36 hours until kickoff, data feeds:

Betting public is 26% MIA (+6.5)

Betting public is 74% NYJ (-6.5)

Betting public is 28% MIA on Moneyline

Betting public is 72% NYJ on Moneyline

Suspicious Activity

Bodio’s MLB Tue 10/04 (Playoffs)

UNDER 7 PHI/STL +100

No idea why we can get this UNDER at + odds but I’ll take it. My model has this one at 6.0 total runs and 8 would be needed for this wager to lose. This comes down to a couple of things.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans (-3.5) 10/2/2011 1pm EST

This week’s pick is the Houston Texans (-3).

Three hours until kickoff, data feeds:

Betting public is 60% PITTSBURGH (+3.5)

Betting public is 40% HOUSTON (-3.5)

Betting public is 94% PITTSBURGH on money line

Betting public is 6% HOUSTON on money line

Money line betting percentages suggest Vegas bookmakers are accepting risk on Houston Moneyline.

Expect the Houston Texans defense to control the line of scrimmage.  Pittsburgh has lost 3 starting offensive lineman to injury, RT Willie Colon, LT Johnathan Scott, and RG Doug Legursky.

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills (-4) Sunday 9/18/11 1pm

Players,

This week’s Pick is the BUFFALO BILLS (-4) or (-3.5 at a few sportsbooks).

With less than 5 1/2 hours until kickoff, the latest data feeds:

Betting public is 59%  BUFFALO

Betting public is 41% OAKLAND

Although we prefer to go against the betting public majority in most situations, we are comfortable with the BUFFALO (-4)  due to the relatively balanced betting percentages.

2011 NBA Finals Game 1- Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks

Game Winner Pick	Confidence		Projection
Miami	2 star		Dallas	37.4%
			Miami	62.6%

ATS Pick	Confidence		Projection
DAL +4.5	3 star		Dallas	52.9%
			Miami	47.1%

Totals Pick	Confidence		Projection
Under 186.5	2 star		Over	45.8%
			Under	54.2%

Money Line Pick	Confidence		Projection
DAL +175	2 star		Dallas	+9.9%
			Miami	-12.4%